Probability, Statistics, and Uncertainty: Faculty Source Packet
A faculty-reviewed reader for ASHA-201 introducing probability, statistics, and uncertainty through transparent methods and evidence boundaries.
Orientation
Probability describes uncertainty under defined assumptions; it does not predict one event with certainty.
Core concept
Statistics summarize samples, but samples may be biased, too small, or unrepresentative. Mean, median, range, and distribution answer different questions.
Evidence and method
Correlation does not establish causation. Confounders, selection effects, and common causes must be considered.
Application and limits
Use confidence labels carefully: suggestive, probable, well-supported, and established are not interchangeable.
What the evidence establishes
Statistics summarize samples, but samples may be biased, too small, or unrepresentative. Mean, median, range, and distribution answer different questions.
What remains interpretive
The course requires students to distinguish disciplinary evidence from theological or philosophical interpretation and to state uncertainty where evidence is incomplete.
Seminar questions
- Which claim is most strongly established?
- What alternative explanation deserves consideration?
- How would stronger evidence change the conclusion?